Thursday, July 12, 2012

Economic Journal - Thursday, 7/12/2012

(As of 7:41 am pacific)

Jobless claims came in above expectations, but have given no positive bounce to a very negative market opening.  Worries from Asia, particularly China growth stats now seem to be the markets focus.  I sense that the market is starting to sense that earnings season might present more negative surprises.  It looks a little bit like a ‘risk-off’ scenario, with most asset classes dropping.  The Federal Reserve minutes from yesterday indicating no imminent quantitative easing packages are on the table may lend credence to this ‘risk off’ scenario.  Oil and gold are down. Interest rates are down. Volatility is up.  The dollar is down against all except the yen.  Expect the jobless claims numbers to gradually add strength and a bit of a recovery to today’s market.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see a market reversal and a positive close.