Thursday, August 21, 2014

Economic Journal - Thursday, 8/21/2014



(As of 7:25 am PST)

US stock indexes are mixed in the first hour of trading as investors mulled upbeat economic data with the prospect of a ‘sooner than later’ rate hike after yesterday’s release of the most recent FOMC meeting minutes.  Economic reports are positive today. Jobless claims fell 14,000 last week to 298,000, well below expectations.  A “flash” reading of manufacturing PMI showed activity in August jumping to the highest level since April 2010.  Also a strong reading of the Philly Fed index showed manufacturing activity reaching the highest level in that region since March 2011.  Lastly, a report on housing showed sales of existing homes rising 2.4% in July, the fastest pace of the year.  The market’s reaction to the strong data has been muted in the early going.  Perhaps yesterday’s hawkish sentiment in the FOMC minutes is creating a ‘good news is bad news’ scenario whereby more positive economic data equates to an earlier move on the Fed’s part to raise interest rates.  Yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes seemed to indicate some disagreement within the Fed on when to raise rates.  If the move is to be ‘data-dependent’, today’s upbeat data would be in support of a sooner than expected rise in rates.  The market will be looking ahead to tomorrow’s speech from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen for more guidance on the Fed’s monetary policy plans.

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