Thursday, May 10, 2012

Economic Journal - Thursday, 5/10/2012

(As of 8:21 am pacific)

The market recovered this morning after 6 straight days of losses as Europe was out of the headlines at least for the moment.  The news was primarily dominated by economic headlines.  US first time jobless claims came in flat, falling 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000 last week, as economists expected a decline to 365,000.  Claims from 2 weeks ago were revised upward to 368,000 from 365,000.  The 4 week rolling average fell 5,250 to 379,000.  According to the Labor Dept., US import prices fell 0.5% in April after a revised March reading of 1.5%.  Economists expected a 0.2% decline.  Excluding the volatile fuel sector, US import prices rose 0.1% last month.  Export prices rose 0.4% in April after a 0.8% rise in March.  The Commerce Dept. reported today that US trade deficit widened 14.1% in March to $51.8 billion, above the forecast of $50 billion.  The widening in deficit was in line with forecasts.  The government estimated that GDP growth slowed in the first quarter to 2.2% annualized rate from 3.0% in the 4th quarter last year.  In China, trade surplus unexpectedly widened for April.  In normal circumstances a widening trade surplus is a good thing as it would indicate exports are exceeding imports and more cash flow is coming into the country and more goods are being produced therein.  In China’s case, the surplus widening is more a symptom of imports declining because of a weakening demand for goods of people/businesses in China.   Japan’s trade surplus shrank more than expected.  Asian markets were mixed on the day.  In Europe, stocks recovered after getting crushed this week as other economic news took over the headlines.  Oil reversed morning gains trading slightly down at 8:09 am pacific at 96.73, while gold traded flat at 1594.  The US dollar was mixed and the 10 yr. treasury yield was up 5 basis points to 1.90%.  30 yr. mortgage rates remained low at 3.78%.  The VIX traded lower, down 1.10% to 19.86.