Thursday, February 4, 2016

Economic Journal - Thursday, 2/4/2016

(As of 7:15 am PST)

It was a wild finish to the session yesterday which ultimately saw a 400 point intraday swing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after a late day rally in oil prices pulled stock prices higher. Oil surged nearly 9% on the day bringing oil prices firmly above $30 per barrel.  Crude oil futures were volatile in the pre-market this morning whipsawing stocks. The market opened lower, but looks poised to follow energy prices higher as crude oil most recently is trading up 3.5% to $33 per barrel. Economic data is weak today. Jobless claims rose to 285,000 last week, higher than expected. Business productivity fell at an annualized pace of 3% in the fourth quarter, the worst decline since 2014, and much worse than expected. Factory orders also declined in December, marking the fourth time in five months that orders have slipped. Disappointing earnings results added to the negative news this morning as weak reports from Ralph Lauren, Kohl’s, Phillip Morris and ConocoPhillips hit the wires. Asian markets recovered some of yesterday’s losses, while European stocks were mixed on the day. Gold is up 1% in the early going, while interest rates and the US dollar extended their recent declines. Despite the negative news this morning, it looks like the correlation between stocks and oil prices remains. As of this writing, stock prices are turning up as is oil. However, as we saw yesterday, where we start the day is not ultimately where we'll end up. 

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