Thursday, December 12, 2013

Economic Journal - Thursday, 12/12/2013

(As of 7:20 am PST)

Stocks are lower again this morning after a mixed batch of economic data has investors speculating on whether or not the Fed will taper out of next week’s meeting.  Encouraging retail sales data in November indicates holiday shopping is off to a good start.  Retail sales rose 0.7% in November, the largest increase since June and consistent with many recent economic reports that suggest the US economy is improving.  Jobless claims jumped by a whopping 68,000 last week, worse than expected but overshadowed by the retail sales report.  A narrative has been forming for weeks now that the US economy is improving at such a pace that the Fed’s stimulus programs are likely to end by the end of the year.  The easy-money addicted market has developed a “good news is bad news” mindset and we’re seeing that again today.  Gold is getting crushed today, down 2.5%.  After a disappointing year for the precious metal, the recent downward pressure could be from tax loss selling as investors look to offset large capital gains on the year.  Taper notwithstanding, a short term pullback could be healthy for this overheated market and could prove to be a positive for investors in the long run.

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