Monday, April 18, 2016

Economic Journal - Monday, 4/18/2016

(as of 7:00 AM PST)

US markets are ignoring the big news of the weekend, the Doha Oil summit, which was supposed to result in an agreement to freeze oil prices.  Because of lingering tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia there was no deal.  Oil prices plummeted and Asia stocks were down heavily as a result.  In today's market action there is hardly notice of the drama. Stocks are flat, but flat is good, given the dire predictions of a big decline attached to the price of oil.  Over the past few weeks we have actually seen a decoupling of oil prices and stock market direction, which seems to be a stab at normalcy, where stocks react to corporate profits and economic projections, the historical norm.  Corporate profits are coming in above expectations and that is a big offset to the oil story. The result of all of this is an eerily quiet calm on Wall Street.  A continuation of the trend in corporate profit reports could lead to mild gains as the day wears on. 

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