Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Economic Journal - Tuesday, 3/29/2016

(as of 7:00 AM PST)

The two primary drivers of market direction that we have seen over the last few months are in play again this morning and the results are dull downward drift in most markets.  Oil seems the primary culprit, down nearly three percent on supply glut fears.  Most markets are off about a half percent, with negative momentum continuing to build from yesterday's weak showing.  Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks today and her message looks to be one of continuing US economic recovery with hints that inflation is making a mild comeback.  Both are factors that indicate another rate hike is right around the corner.  In a market that has proven to be driven by financial stimulus, the move downward we are seeing is an obvious result, but it is important to look back at the last rate hike and note that the market protest was short lived, and a rally quickly ensued.  For the moment, however, pessimism seems to be setting in and a day of boring negative drift seems likely.  Asian markets were mostly down overnight, with Japan the lone positive story on a surprise increase in retail sales.  Europe is mostly down, also seeming to anxiously await Janet Yellen's comments.  Precious metals are making a mild comeback and the US dollar is stronger today against most major currencies.

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