(as of 7:00 AM PST)
It looks like we are ringing out the old year
with some pretty harsh economic data that leads us to carry worries into
2016. Markets are down moderately to start the day, but it could be
worse. The Chicago PMI, a key measure of industrial activity plunged far
below expectations and into contractionary territory, at a level not seen since
2009. Jobless claims were up and higher than expectations which indicates
that the nascent economic recovery we experienced this year might be more
fragile than we think. It's hard to imagine that the Federal Reserve
interest rate hike is having an impact so soon, but this definite negative turn
is likely to slow future rate hikes and might, if troubles continue to arise,
cause a reversal back to zero or even negative rates in 2016. There are
few traders on this last day of 2015, so any major impact on prices might carry
over to Monday's opening session. It has certainly been a blah year from
a market perspective. Technology and pharmaceuticals are about
the only sectors that had a good year, while international markets and
commodities in general were the worst performers. Our hope is that
today's reports are anomalies, and that the New Year will usher in a continuing
vibrant US economic recovery, and that the strength of our economy will
jumpstart the rest of the global economy in 2016. Whatever the case, we
at Miller Financial Group want to wish you all a healthy and prosperous New
Year!
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