(As of 7:14 am pacific)
A mixed pot of domestic and
international data and sentiment is causing the stock market to retreat from
yesterday's moderate gain. The Chicago
PMI, a key manufacturing statistic, fell into negative territory at 49.7, well
below consensus, and indicating economic contraction in that area. The consumer
sentiment index was up, but did not match lofty expectations. US consumer spending is up .5 percent, which
is normally a positive, but the fact that much of the gain was due to higher
gas prices has nixed the stimulative effect of the report. The US savings rate was down as consumers
spent more, while incomes remained nearly flat.
Mixed reports from Europe and lingering worries about global growth have
contributed to what is shaping up as a somewhat negative end to the 3rd quarter
of 2012. Oil, gold and the US dollar are
all mixed. Volatility is slightly
higher. Interest rates continue lower as
mortgage rates plumb new lows. It has
been a great quarter, but it is likely that given the mostly negative news that
profit taking will be the order of the day, and we will see a triple digit drop
in the Dow with other indexes following suit.
