Economic Journal - Friday, 3/29/2013

The US stock market is closed today for Good Friday and will reopen on Monday.  Have a wonderful Easter weekend and enjoy the beautiful Oregon sunshine that's coming our way.  See you on Monday!

- Bruce and Ben

Economic Journal - Thursday, 3/28/2013

(As of 7:20 am PST)

 

There is not much to like in today’s economic news.  The markets opened slightly higher, but don’t expect those levels to hold.  Generally news has been negative across the globe and domestically.  It is not enough to change market momentum in a big way, but with current run-ups, and record market closes, it feels as if profit taking is in the cards and these less than stellar reports might give investors a reason to pause.  It is the end of what has been a great quarter for the stock market since Good Friday is a stock holiday.  Gold is down and oil is flat.  The US dollar is mixed, but mostly down. 

Economic Journal - Wednesday, 3/27/2013

(As of 7:15 am PST)

 

Europe is dominating the headlines once again this morning.  Italy has yet to form a coalition government since its election in February with the leader of the Democratic party remarking today that only an “insane” person would want to govern Italy and that the country was a “mess.”  The comments sent investors running for the hills frustrated by the lack of progress and nervous about the future of Italy.  The Cyprus situation is not getting any better either.  Banks remain closed as Cypriot authorities are expected to detail capital controls later today in an attempt to reopen banks tomorrow.  Customers may find it more difficult than they expect to access and move money for months to come.  Economic sentiment throughout the euro-zone region fell larger than expected this month.  US data is light today with one report showing pending home sales declining by 0.4% in February.  Treasury prices are roaring higher this morning as investors flock to safety sending interest rates lower.   Gold is higher and oil lower.  The market is acting in a frenetic manner at these tops, with small pullbacks triggering opportunities for some investors to “buy on the dips” while others still waiting for a deeper correction.  

Economic Journal - Tuesday, 3/26/2013

(As of 7:14 am PST)

 

Cyprus has faded into background noise in today’s market action.  A strong durable goods order is breathing life back into a market that choked on yesterday’s European action.  The durable goods number was a strong plus 5.7%, but excluding the volatile aircraft and defense sectors, it was slightly negative.  Real estate prices increased the most in six years in another of many signs that the housing sector is regaining its footing.   Positive momentum regains the edge but the basis of the change is not that solid, with investors giving way too much emphasis on middling reports.  Gold is down a half percent while oil is up about one percent, along with most other commodities.  Interest rates are trending up while the dollar is down against most other currencies.  Expect wishy washy market action with investors trying to interpret mixed data.

Economic Journal - Monday, 3/25/2013

(As of 7:45 am PST)

 

Good news out of Europe compliments solid US economic data providing a lift for stocks at the outset of today’s market activity.  Cyprus has averted a looming crisis taking pressure off of the Euro.  Gold is down while oil is up, along with most other commodities.  Interest rates are stable, but expect an upward trend as the markets continue to digest positive data.  Positive momentum continues to be the stock market story.  Little in the way of economic reports will move markets this holiday shortened week.

Economic Journal - Friday, 3/22/2013

(As of 7:15 am PST)

 

It seems that markets are looking at Cyprus in the rear view mirror as investors are shrugging off the mini-crisis and moving back to the positive momentum we have seen for the past few weeks.  Europe is relatively quiet and Asian markets were mixed last night.  Gold is giving back some of yesterday’s gains and oil is up.  Some positive earnings reports, most notably from Nike, are adding to investor enthusiasm.  It is a quiet day for economic data and we expect this positive momentum to settle in for a while. 

Economic Journal - Thursday, 3/21/2013

(As of 7:13 am PST)

 

It is a battle of sorts, with weak economic data out of Europe pulling US stocks down in spite of positive data out of the US.  Europe continues to be mired in recession with a recent PMI number coming in at 46.5.  Any reading below 50 indicates business contraction.  On the other hand, a US flash PMI report came in at a very healthy 54.9, another in a string of reports showing that the US economy is starting to hum.  Jobless claims continue to be at 5 year lows, construction is up and leading economic indicators also rose.  Gold is up moderately and oil is down, after a healthy gain yesterday.  Mortgage interest rates and rates in general are drifting lower as the uncertainty of Cyprus and Europe in general create a desire for the stability of US dollar assets.  I expect strong US data to win the day and that early losses will give way to a positive day on US stock markets.